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Recent analyses by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicate a deceleration in China's economic growth, with projections suggesting a slowdown to 4% by 2026.
This trend has significant implications for global economic dynamics, particularly for countries like Australia that maintain strong trade relationships with China.
Global Economic Outlook
The World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report forecasts that global growth will stabilise at 2.7% in both 2025 and 2026. This stabilisation follows a series of economic shocks in recent years, including the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions, which have collectively dampened economic momentum.
The report emphasises that while growth is stabilising, it remains insufficient to foster sustained economic development, especially in emerging markets and developing economies (World Bank, 2025).
The IMF's World Economic Outlook aligns with these projections, estimating global growth at 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026.
The IMF highlights that while inflation rates are expected to decline reaching 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026 there is considerable policy uncertainty that could influence these outcomes (IMF, 2025).
China's Economic Trajectory
China's economy, a significant driver of global growth over the past decades, is experiencing a notable slowdown. The World Bank projects China's growth to decline from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025, and further to 4.0% in 2026.
This deceleration is attributed to broad-based weaknesses in domestic demand, including challenges in the property market and diminishing returns on infrastructure investments (World Bank, 2025).
Implications for Australia
Australia's economic trajectory is closely linked to China's, given that China is Australia's largest trading partner. In 2024, Australia's GDP growth was estimated at 1.2%, with projections of 2.1% in 2025. These figures reflect a modest recovery; however, the slowing Chinese economy poses risks to this outlook (IMF, 2024).
The primary channel through which China's slowdown could affect Australia is trade. A significant portion of Australia's exports, particularly commodities like iron ore and coal, are destined for China. A reduction in Chinese demand for these commodities could lead to lower export revenues for Australia, potentially impacting its trade balance and overall economic growth.
Broader Global Implications
The deceleration of China's economy also has wider implications for global trade and investment. Countries that are part of China's supply chain or rely on Chinese investments may experience reduced economic activity.
Additionally, global commodity prices could face downward pressure due to decreased Chinese demand, affecting exporters worldwide.
Furthermore, the slowdown may lead to shifts in global capital flows. Investors seeking higher returns might redirect capital from China to other emerging markets, potentially leading to increased volatility in global financial markets.
Policy Considerations
In light of these developments, policymakers in Australia and other countries with significant economic ties to China should consider strategies to mitigate potential adverse effects. Diversifying export markets, investing in value-added industries, and enhancing economic resilience through structural reforms could be prudent measures.
On a global scale, coordinated policy efforts are essential to manage the potential spillover effects of China's slowdown. This includes maintaining open trade channels, ensuring financial market stability, and supporting global demand through fiscal and monetary policies.
In conclusion, while the projected slowdown in China's economic growth presents challenges, it also underscores the importance of adaptive economic strategies and international cooperation to sustain global economic stability.
éthica capital, Green Bond Corporation SARL (GBC) and Carbon Capital Corporation (CCC)
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References –
World Bank (2025). Emerging and Developing Economies in the 21st Century. [online] World Bank. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects.
IMF (2025). World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025: Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain. [online] IMF. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/01/17/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2025.
IMF. (2024). IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Australia. [online] Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/12/18/pr-24482-australia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2024-aiv-consultation.
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